[CT] Question about Heinlein

[Dan Moran]

Thanks, that fits my recollection pretty clearly - but I want to know if
that same point is in the version of that piece published in 1950 or
thereabouts. Moore's prediction is from the early 70s.
 
-----Original Message-----
From: continuing-time-admin at ralf.org
[mailto:continuing-time-admin at ralf.org] On Behalf Of Jesse Wendel
Sent: Saturday, June 14, 2003 6:13 PM
To: continuing-time at ralf.org
Subject: RE: [CT] Question about Heinlein
 
I'm looking in my copy, which is the 1981 Ace trade paperback edition.
 
First, the quote isn't from Pandora's Box.  Pandora's Box serves as an
introduction to the set of predictions which follow, which is where the
quote is from.  The article name is, "Where To?".
 
The quote is, "The Age of Science has not yet opened."  And the words,
"has not yet opened" are in italics.
 
In the paragraphs leading up to that quote, Heinlein talks about what he
calls the "curve of human achievement."  (There is also a graph.)  He
says, "But the proper way to project the curve is dotted line number
four - for there is no reason, mathematical, scientific, or historical,
to expect that curve to flatten out, or to reach a point of diminishing
returns, or simply to go on as a tangent.  The correct projection, by
all facts known today, is for the curve to go on up indefinitely with
increasing steepness."  ("Increasing" is in italics.)
 
Heinlein continues, "The timid little predictions earlier in this
article actually belong to curve one, or, at most, to curve two.  You
can count on the changes in the next fifty years at least eight times
(note: "eight times" in italics) as great as the changes of the past
fifty years.
 
The Age of Science has not yet opened."
 
 
So yes - Heinlein was ahead of Moore's Law, and he did say it more
clearly.  As usual.
 
Best,
 
Jesse
 
 
 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: continuing-time-admin at ralf.org
[mailto:continuing-time-admin at ralf.org]On Behalf Of Dan Moran
Sent: Saturday, June 14, 2003 5:30 PM
To: continuing-time at ralf.org
Subject: [CT] Question about Heinlein
 
There's a line in Pandora's Box, in Expanded Universe, that makes the
point that "the age of Science has not yet opened" -- that's a
paraphrase from memory, but I think pretty close.
 
Was that line, and Heinlein's commentary about the fourth curve, in
the first version of this work, published in the 1950s? I'm
particularly interested because Gordon Moore, who formulated Moore's
Law (a fairly technical prediction about chip density) generally gets
credited with making this broad point about the way in which
technology accelerates -- and I suspect Heinlein (and possibly others,
but at least Heinlein) said so before Moore did, and much more
clearly.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://www.ralf.org/pipermail/ct-announce/attachments/20030614/b6b6135b/attachment.html>