[CT] Question about Heinlein

Sat, 14 Jun 2003 18:28:10 -0700

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

------=_NextPart_000_0003_01C332A2.B7C09C10
Content-Type: text/plain;
	charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Thanks, that fits my recollection pretty clearly - but I want to know if
that same point is in the version of that piece published in 1950 or
thereabouts. Moore's prediction is from the early 70s.

-----Original Message-----
From: continuing-time-admin@ralf.org
[mailto:continuing-time-admin@ralf.org] On Behalf Of Jesse Wendel
Sent: Saturday, June 14, 2003 6:13 PM
To: continuing-time@ralf.org
Subject: RE: [CT] Question about Heinlein

I'm looking in my copy, which is the 1981 Ace trade paperback edition.

First, the quote isn't from Pandora's Box.  Pandora's Box serves as an
introduction to the set of predictions which follow, which is where the
quote is from.  The article name is, "Where To?".

The quote is, "The Age of Science has not yet opened."  And the words,
"has not yet opened" are in italics.

In the paragraphs leading up to that quote, Heinlein talks about what he
calls the "curve of human achievement."  (There is also a graph.)  He
says, "But the proper way to project the curve is dotted line number
four - for there is no reason, mathematical, scientific, or historical,
to expect that curve to flatten out, or to reach a point of diminishing
returns, or simply to go on as a tangent.  The correct projection, by
all facts known today, is for the curve to go on up indefinitely with
increasing steepness."  ("Increasing" is in italics.)

Heinlein continues, "The timid little predictions earlier in this
article actually belong to curve one, or, at most, to curve two.  You
can count on the changes in the next fifty years at least eight times
(note: "eight times" in italics) as great as the changes of the past
fifty years.

The Age of Science has not yet opened."

So yes - Heinlein was ahead of Moore's Law, and he did say it more
clearly.  As usual.

Best,

Jesse

-----Original Message-----
From: continuing-time-admin@ralf.org
[mailto:continuing-time-admin@ralf.org]On Behalf Of Dan Moran
Sent: Saturday, June 14, 2003 5:30 PM
To: continuing-time@ralf.org
Subject: [CT] Question about Heinlein

There's a line in Pandora's Box, in Expanded Universe, that makes the
point that "the age of Science has not yet opened" -- that's a
paraphrase from memory, but I think pretty close.

Was that line, and Heinlein's commentary about the fourth curve, in
the first version of this work, published in the 1950s? I'm
particularly interested because Gordon Moore, who formulated Moore's
Law (a fairly technical prediction about chip density) generally gets
credited with making this broad point about the way in which
technology accelerates -- and I suspect Heinlein (and possibly others,
but at least Heinlein) said so before Moore did, and much more
clearly.

------=_NextPart_000_0003_01C332A2.B7C09C10
Content-Type: text/html;
	charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<html xmlns:o=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" =
xmlns:w=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" =
xmlns:st1=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" =
xmlns=3D"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">

<head>
<META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Dus-ascii">

<meta name=3DProgId content=3DWord.Document>
<meta name=3DGenerator content=3D"Microsoft Word 10">
<meta name=3DOriginator content=3D"Microsoft Word 10">
<link rel=3DFile-List href=3D"cid:filelist.xml@01C332A2.B4D3DC60">
<o:SmartTagType =
namespaceuri=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
 name=3D"time"/>
<o:SmartTagType =
namespaceuri=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
 name=3D"date"/>
<o:SmartTagType =
namespaceuri=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
 name=3D"City"/>
<o:SmartTagType =
namespaceuri=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
 name=3D"place"/>
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
  <o:DoNotRelyOnCSS/>
 </o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <w:WordDocument>
  <w:SpellingState>Clean</w:SpellingState>
  <w:GrammarState>Clean</w:GrammarState>
  <w:DocumentKind>DocumentEmail</w:DocumentKind>
  <w:EnvelopeVis/>
  <w:Compatibility>
   <w:BreakWrappedTables/>
   <w:SnapToGridInCell/>
   <w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
   <w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
  </w:Compatibility>
  <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
 </w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]>
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#default#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]-->
<style>
<!--
 /* Font Definitions */
 @font-face
	{font-family:Tahoma;
	panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;
	mso-font-charset:0;
	mso-generic-font-family:swiss;
	mso-font-pitch:variable;
	mso-font-signature:1627421319 -2147483648 8 0 66047 0;}
 /* Style Definitions */
 p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
	{mso-style-parent:"";
	margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
	{color:blue;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
	{color:purple;
	text-decoration:underline;
	text-underline:single;}
p.MsoAutoSig, li.MsoAutoSig, div.MsoAutoSig
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
pre
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:10.0pt;
	font-family:"Courier New";
	mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";
	color:black;}
span.emailstyle17
	{mso-style-name:emailstyle17;
	mso-style-noshow:yes;}
span.EmailStyle20
	{mso-style-type:personal;
	mso-style-noshow:yes;
	mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
	mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;
	font-family:Arial;
	mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
	mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
	mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
	color:windowtext;}
span.EmailStyle21
	{mso-style-type:personal;
	mso-style-noshow:yes;
	mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
	font-family:Arial;
	mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
	mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
	mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
	color:navy;}
span.EmailStyle22
	{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
	mso-style-noshow:yes;
	mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
	mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;
	font-family:Arial;
	mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
	mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
	mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
	color:navy;}
@page Section1
	{size:8.5in 11.0in;
	margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
	mso-header-margin:.5in;
	mso-footer-margin:.5in;
	mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
	{page:Section1;}
-->
</style>
<!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
 /* Style Definitions */=20
 table.MsoNormalTable
	{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
	mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
	mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
	mso-style-noshow:yes;
	mso-style-parent:"";
	mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
	mso-para-margin:0in;
	mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
	font-size:10.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";}
</style>
<![endif]-->
</head>

<body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple =
style=3D'tab-interval:.5in'>

<div class=3DSection1>

Thanks, that fits my recollection =
pretty
clearly &#8211; but I want to know if that same point is in the version =
of that
piece published in 1950 or thereabouts. =
<st1:City><st1:place>Moore</st1:place></st1:City>&#8217;s prediction is from the early =
70s.<o:p></o:p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<div style=3D'border:none;border-left:solid blue 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in =
0in 4.0pt'>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
continuing-time-admin@ralf.org [mailto:continuing-time-admin@ralf.org] =
<b><span
style=3D'font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Jesse Wendel<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> =
</span></font><st1:date
Month=3D"6" Day=3D"14" Year=3D"2003"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span =
style=3D'font-size:
 10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Saturday, June 14, =
2003</span></font></st1:date><font
size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> </span></font><st1:time
Hour=3D"18" Minute=3D"13"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
 font-family:Tahoma'>6:13 PM</span></font></st1:time><font size=3D2 =
face=3DTahoma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'><br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> =
continuing-time@ralf.org<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: [CT] =
Question about
Heinlein</span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>I&#8217;m looking =
in my
copy, which is the 1981 Ace trade paperback =
edition.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>First, the quote =
isn&#8217;t
from Pandora&#8217;s Box.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp;
</span>Pandora&#8217;s Box serves as an introduction to the set of =
predictions
which follow, which is where the quote is from.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>The article name is, =
&#8220;Where
To?&#8221;.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>The quote is, =
&#8220;The Age
of Science <i><span style=3D'font-style:italic'>has not yet =
opened</span></i>.&#8221;<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>And the words, &#8220;has not =
yet
opened&#8221; are in italics.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>In the paragraphs =
leading up
to that quote, Heinlein talks about what he calls the &#8220;curve of =
human
achievement.&#8221;<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>(There =
is also
a graph.)<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>He says, =
&#8220;But the
proper way to project the curve is dotted line number four &#8211; for =
there is
no reason, mathematical, scientific, or historical, to expect that curve =
to
flatten out, or to reach a point of diminishing returns, or simply to go =
on as
a tangent.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>The correct =
projection,
by all facts known today, is for the curve to go on up indefinitely with =
<i><span
style=3D'font-style:italic'>increasing</span></i> steepness.&#8221;<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>(&#8220;Increasing&#8221; is in
italics.)<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>Heinlein continues,
&#8220;The timid little predictions earlier in this article actually =
belong to
curve one, or, at most, to curve two.<span =
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp;
</span>You can count on the changes in the next fifty years at least =
<i><span
style=3D'font-style:italic'>eight times</span></i> (note: &#8220;eight =
times&#8221;
in italics) as great as the changes of the past fifty =
years.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>The Age of Science =
<i><span
style=3D'font-style:italic'>has not yet =
opened</span></i>.&#8221;<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>So yes &#8211; =
Heinlein was
ahead of Moore&#8217;s Law, and he did say it more clearly.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>As =
usual.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>Best,<o:p></o:p></sp=
an></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>Jesse<o:p></o:p></sp=
an></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></s=
pan></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 =
color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> =
continuing-time-admin@ralf.org
[mailto:continuing-time-admin@ralf.org]<b><span =
style=3D'font-weight:bold'>On
Behalf Of </span></b>Dan Moran<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Saturday, June 14, =
2003 5:30
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> =
continuing-time@ralf.org<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CT] Question =
about
Heinlein</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<pre style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>There's a line in Pandora's Box, in Expanded =
Universe, that makes the<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>point that &quot;the age of Science has not =
yet opened&quot; -- that's a<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>paraphrase from memory, but I think pretty =
close.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>Was that line, and Heinlein's commentary =
about the fourth curve, in<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>the first version of this work, published in =
the 1950s? I'm<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>particularly interested because Gordon Moore, =
who formulated =
<st1:City><st1:place>Moore</st1:place></st1:City>'s<o:p></o=
:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>Law (a fairly technical prediction about chip =
density) generally gets<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>credited with making this broad point about =
the way in which<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>technology accelerates -- and I suspect =
Heinlein (and possibly others,<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>but at least Heinlein) said so before =
<st1:City><st1:place>Moore</st1:place></st1:City> did, and =
much more<o:p></o:p></pre><pre
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'>clearly.<o:p></o:p></pre></div>

</div>

</body>

</html>

------=_NextPart_000_0003_01C332A2.B7C09C10--

____________________________
continuing-time mailing list
continuing-time@ralf.org
http://www.ralf.org/mailman/listinfo/continuing-time